Bitcoin (BTC) remained in a very tight range over the weekend. The price generally hovered between $19,400 and $19,500. It may be the calm before the storm, as the weather could be a volatile week. At the time of writing, bitcoin is falling back to $19,400 on Binance and $19,940 on Bitvavo.
Are you ready for Monday? #Bitcoin #BTC#BTCUSD #BTCUSDT pic.twitter.com/CBfNplPLza
— Duo Nine | YCC (@DU09BTC) Oct 9, 2022
This means that the bitcoin price is 0.2% in the minus today. The trading volume increased by 8.6% in the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization is $372.6 billion and the dominance at 40.8%. The Fear & Greed Index comes in at 22 (Extreme Fear).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 22 — Extreme Fear
Current price: $19,413 pic.twitter.com/9SB3dyTz5K— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) Oct 9, 2022
Macro may cause volatile week
Volatility has declined sharply in recent days, but as mentioned, that could reverse this week. The next US consumer price index (CPI) will be published on Thursday 14 October. The financial markets, including bitcoin, have reacted strongly to these US inflation figures on several occasions this year.
In addition, we must take into account that there will be no Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month. That’s only in November. The FOMC minutes, the minutes of the previous meeting, will be published on Wednesday. Both can provide insight into what the Federal Reserve plans to do in terms of rate hikes, and markets may react strongly again.
Today, the US bond market will remain closed for Columbus Day. Pre-market futures however, stock markets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already turning red and that may not bode well. Yet bitcoin held up remarkably stronger than these stock markets last week and that was not the case earlier this year.
It’s interesting, unlike the Nasdaq or S&P 500 Bitcoin hasn’t broken below its June lows.
My theory is this could be because Bitcoin is arguably the index of choice in betting on a Fed pivot.
Issues ahead if the pivot doesn’t materialize.
*Not financial advice pic.twitter.com/qXEK2uNWzq
— Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 (@AvidCommentator) Oct 9, 2022
Bitcoin investors remain cautious
The ever deteriorating macroeconomic situation has made investors extremely hesitant. Analyst Game of Trades reports that the number of small investors with exposure to equities is at its lowest in more than 30 years.
The number of people sitting on the sidelines is astonishing.
Small speculators are now at their lowest stock exposure level since 1990. pic.twitter.com/MtnDUvRsDF
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) Oct 4, 2022
The bitcoin supply in the hands of short-term investors is now even at a all time low. It is at worst 22% or about 4.2 million BTC, and this low is already lower than previous bear markets. Still, it can be even lower, says analyst Jan Wüstenfeld. This share of the BTC supply usually rises during bull markets when new investors step in.
The supply of Bitcoin in the hand of short-term holders (0-6 months) is around all-time lows.
Roughly 22% or total supply.
Lows during the previous two bear markets have been higher (24% and 25%).
But we have already seen all-time lows this cycle. So it may still go lower. pic.twitter.com/lBIRulNLop
— Jan Wustenfeld (@JanWues) October 8, 2022
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