Bitcoin price drops and closes the month in red for the first time since 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) already fell back towards $27,000 yesterday morning, but seemed to hold there. Even after bitcoin dipped below $27,000, bitcoin quickly recovered and then rose to a peak of $27,300. There, however, the price was rejected and plummeted all the way to $26,600 this morning.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is recovering slightly to reach $26,818 on Binance and $25,135 on Bitvavo. This puts the bitcoin price down 1.5% today. The total market capitalization is $520 billion and the dominance is 46.1%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 52 (Neutral).

May was worst month since November 2022

Bitcoin unexpectedly performed strongly at the start of the year, but yesterday closed the month in the red for the first time this year. In fact, it was Bitcoin’s worst month since November 2022, when the FTX crash happened. As James van Straten says: sell in may and go away was apparently correct. Or was it one of those self fulfilling prophecy?

Next step in debt ceiling drama

The House of Representatives, the lower house of the US Congress, has approved the US debt ceiling deal. However, the drama is not quite over yet, now the proposal is going to the US Senate. However, it remains to be seen whether the Senate will approve the deal before the weekend, but the pressure is now running high.

More rate hikes this year?

Yesterday, the president of the Federal Reserve of Cleveland caused some fear in the financial markets again. She sounded pretty good hawkish about the policy of the US central bank and expects at least another rate hike this year. She says she doesn’t see a good reason for a break yet.

Interest rate decision on June 14

Nevertheless, we see another shift taking place. Just yesterday we reported that according to the CME FedWatch tool, more than 60% of the market expected an increase during the interest rate decision. That has since fallen back to 36%. The next interest rate meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, will take place on June 13 and 14.

BTC investors refuse to sell

We may not see a real major market move again until FOMC. Investors are currently very reluctant to buy, but at the same time long-term holders refuse to sell their bitcoin. Even after the recent move up, investors are not choosing to take profits.

Extremely low trading volume

Although this trust bullish is for the price in the long run, it makes for a very low trading volume in the market and that is probably bearish for the short term. The daily trading volume is even the lowest since 2020, analyst Will Clemente reports based on data from Kaiko.

Extremely low volatility

That is why volatility is also extremely low and has been for a remarkably long time. The bitcoin price has been in the same tight range for two and a half months. As analyst Jack Neureuter points out, these low volatility periods don’t usually last too long.

Bitcoin in descending channel

Analyst Mikybull reports that bitcoin is in a downward trending channel. The analyst expects this to lead to a breakout to the upside, but the price may first touch the bottom of this channel, possibly below $25,000.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty

Finally, the so-called bitcoin mining difficulty increased yesterday. According to data from BTC.com the difficulty increased by 3.4% to a new record of 51.23 T against an average hash rate of 366.47 UH/s. That is a bullish development in the long term, but could cause selling pressure among miners in the short term.

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