A new study from the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) energy consumption will remain below 0.5% of the global total for the next decade.
NYDIG this month published the research report ‘Bitcoin Net Zero‘. The report concludes that Bitcoin’s energy consumption and carbon emissions will not skyrocket in the coming years. Even if the prices do.
The study discusses how the network’s CO2 emissions could change in the future. This depends on fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, the difficulty of the mining and the energy consumption. The report was written by Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter and NYDIG founder Ross Stevens.
According to the research’s most aggressive predictions, Bitcoin’s emissions would still make up a fraction of the world’s total. Even if the price of BTC were to rise to unprecedented heights in 2030, concluding:
Even in our most aggressive scenario, their emissions are only 0.9% of the world total. Also with high prices, with Bitcoin reaching $10 trillion by 2030. Energy expenditure is only 0.4% of the world total.
Higher energy consumption than the Philippines
The report predicts the future growth of Bitcoin mining based on data from 2020. The researchers calculated the historical electricity consumption of Bitcoin miners as a function of the network hashrate and the efficiency of the machine.
For the year 2020, the authors determined that Bitcoin consumed 62 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. It also produced 33 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This amounts to just 0.04% of global energy consumption and 0.1% of global carbon emissions. The authors stated that the carbon waste associated with Bitcoin mining in 2020 was “insignificant in global terms.”
Currently, BTC mining consumes 101 TWh per year, or 0.45% of global electricity. According to the University of Cambridge, the Bitcoin network consumes more energy than the entire country of the Philippines. However, the university also found that Bitcoin consumes less electricity in total than all refrigerators in the US combined, and only 4.6% of the total energy used worldwide for air conditioning in homes.
The report also concludes that the prospects for “decarbonizing” Bitcoin mining industry in the future are promising. The following is stated here:
In the longer term, the intensity of Bitcoin’s carbon emissions (and therefore Bitcoin’s absolute carbon emissions) will decrease. As the development of renewable energy sources continues and countries strive to decarbonise their electricity networks.