Bitcoin (BTC) touched an early low around $25,865 on Thursday and has been tentatively recovering ever since. However, Bitcoin ran into too much resistance around $26,500 last night to break through.
During the night, bitcoin hovered below this, but at the time of writing, the price is again testing this limit and comes in at $26,500 on Binance and $24,680 on Bitvavo. This puts the bitcoin price down 2% today. The total market capitalization is $514 billion and the dominance is 46.2%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 49 (Neutral).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 49 – Neutral
Current price: $26,476 pic.twitter.com/JK22Hiflfc
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) May 26, 2023
Debt ceiling deal a little closer
There is still no deal on the debt ceiling in the US. A deal seems to be closer now. Biden and McCarthy say they agree that the US should not go bankrupt. Then they have to hurry with a deal, because that can happen as early as June 1. Nevertheless, it is expected that this will succeed.
Biden: US Debt Ceiling Talks Going Well, but No Deal Reached Yethttps://t.co/6vjV4mM0nt
— Voice of America (@VOANews) May 26, 2023
Unemployment rates lower than expected
Yesterday, new unemployment figures in the US were published in the form of the so-called jobless claims. This came in at 229,000 slightly higher than the previous 225,000, but a lot lower than the expected 250,000.
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Initial claims were 229,000 for the week ending 5/20 (+4,000).
Insured unemployment was 1,794,000 for the week ending 5/13 (-5,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW
— U.S. Department of Labor (@USDOL) May 25, 2023
CME FedWatch Tool at almost 50%
According to the CME FedWatch tool, almost 50% of the market already expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in June. That was only a few percent a few weeks ago.
A 25 bps interest rate hike at the June meeting is now a coin flip according to CME Fedwatch Tool. It was just 8% a month ago. pic.twitter.com/GK1asjnvAI
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 25, 2023
Core PCE data today
Later today will be the American Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) price index published. An inflation gauge that the US central bank closely monitors for its policy.
Macro Releases – Friday, May 26 🗓️
Time: 8:30 a.m. ET.🕤
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
🇺🇸 Core PCE (YoY) (Apr)
🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 Durable Goods (MoM) (Apr)
Time: 10 a.m. ET.🕙
🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)
🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)$MACRO
— BACH (@MortensenBach) May 26, 2023
Bitcoin volume hits lowest point this year
We have recently written more often about the remarkably low volume in the market. The seven-day average is now even at its lowest point this year. It is a drop of no less than 79% from the 2021 peak.
Total #crypto trading VOL at record lows🔻
7-day trading FULL of top assets ( $BTC, $ETH, $BNB) hits year-low, per @santimentfeed.@glassnode reveals a massive 79% decline in #Bitcoin‘s transfer FULL since its 2021 ATH.
The market sentiment shifts, significant slowdown observed. pic.twitter.com/XyXhNwsPGh
— Orion Trading (@Orion__Trading) May 25, 2023
Bitcoin miners are dumping their reserves again
Miners, on the other hand, remain somewhat more active. They sold another 1,000 BTC for about $27 million in the past 24 hours, analyst Ali Martinez reports. That in turn can cause some selling pressure.
#Bitcoin Miner Reserves are being depleted!
Miners sold around 1,000 $BTC over the past 24 hours, worth roughly $27 million. pic.twitter.com/BSfByNN6km
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 25, 2023
The coin also says $2.3 billion in bitcoin option contracts are due to expire. That can still cause some volatility. However, it is already a lot less than at the end of the first quarter of 2023. June looks a lot more bearish, says analyst James van Straten.
$2.3B or #Bitcoin options expiring tomorrow.
Options expiry was much larger at the end of Q1, about $3B.
June is looking a lot more bearish, with max pain roughly $24,000. pic.twitter.com/TQ5XYy6KS3
— James V. Streets (@jimmyvs24) May 25, 2023
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