Bitcoin faces “end of the world month” in 2024.

January 2024 seems to be a month of decisive moments. With Grayscale Investments’ recent legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and upcoming deadlines for several spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, we may be in for a significant change.

The spot Bitcoin ETF approval window

In a recent episode of “The Scoop” podcast, James Seyffart, ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted the likelihood of spot approval for Bitcoin ETFs in January. He estimates there is about a 90% chance of ETFs being approved. Seyffart further pointed out that the period between January 5th and 10th was crucial. Twelve companies have now filed with the SEC for a post-Bitcoin ETF. The SEC is expected to announce a series of approvals not to give any company an advantage.

Grayscale Investments’ legal triumph in August was a catalyst for this development, says Seyffart. By winning a lawsuit to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product into a spot Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale has set a precedent that puts the SEC in a difficult position.

Seyffart emphasizes that the SEC, led by Chairman Gary Gensler, must be aware of the limitations on its actions following the judge’s ruling, which rejected previous reasons for rejecting ETFs. This could be an important moment for the future direction of crypto regulation and adoption.

Ether has a different position

While spot Bitcoin ETFs are close to approval, the situation with Ethereum (ETH) is significantly different, according to Seyffart. He describes ETH as a “completely different animal” within the ETF landscape. He states that he can understand why the SEC has doubts about approving spot Ethereum ETFs as opposed to Bitcoin ETFs. However, Seyffart states that the SEC has already accepted Ether as a “commodity,” so to speak, and assumes that sooner or later Ethereum ETFs will also come onto the market, but not in January 2024.

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