Bitcoin (BTC) fell further yesterday, accompanied by red-colored stock markets. The fear and uncertainty are still very high and the analysts remain divided as to how far the price can fall.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 20 — Extreme Fear
Current price: $38,730 pic.twitter.com/Za8iOdjo3Z— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) Apr 30, 2022
Bitcoin price 1.5% in the min
The bitcoin price failed to hold above $39,500 yesterday morning and then slumped to $38,800. Bitcoin made a small bouncebut was then turned down around $39,300 and then plummeted all the way to $38,500.
Bitcoin made another dip to $38,300 last night, but then bounced back to $38,500 and started to climb cautiously. However, the price did not go beyond $38,800 last night and has been hovering between $38,500 and $38,800 ever since. The bitcoin price this morning stands at $38,650 on KuCoin and $36,650 on Bitvavo. This means that BTC is currently 1.5% in the min.
Stock markets deep in the red
Although the huge rise in the US dollar index (DXY) slowed down yesterday, it is barely correcting so far. However, it is also very uncertain for the DXY price which way it will now go. Meanwhile, stock markets like Nasdaq and S&P 500 turned quite red yesterday and probably followed bitcoin, given the high correlation. Despite this, both stocks turned even deeper red than bitcoin.
April 2022 was officially the worst month for the Nasdaq Composite (-13.26%) since October 2008 (-17.35%).
— Blake Davis (@blakedavis50) Apr 29, 2022
Analyst Willy Woo explains the current market situation as follows:
Bitcoin price is moving sideways as Wall Street is selling futures contracts in a macro risk-off trade. Meanwhile, institutional money creates BTC at peak rates and stores them in cold storage.
It’s times like these that I remember the supply shock in Q4 2020. The fact that the BTC price is holding up well while stocks tank and USD Index rises strongly is a testament to the unprecedented spot purchases currently taking place.
In other words, investors already see BTC as a safe haven, it will take time for the price to reflect this. Wait for the futures sales to run out of ammunition.”
#Bitcoin price is sideways because of Wall St is selling futures contract in a macro risk-off trade. Meanwhile institutional money is scooping spot BTC at peak rates and moving to cold storage.
It’s times like these I remember the Q4 2020 supply shock squeeze. pic.twitter.com/wLPl4qGjTQ
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) Apr 30, 2022
Analysts divided on bitcoin price direction
Still, analysts are very divided in this uncertain market. If bitcoin now finds enough support and recovers, the price still has to break through $39,600, $40,000 and then $40,700 to speak of a possible trend reversal. Then bitcoin could once again test the area between USD 42,500 and USD 43,000 as it was a week ago.
However, bitcoin will also need to break through $48,000 to return to an uptrend. That currently seems to be a long way off, however, and in this uncertain market there seems to be a good chance that bitcoin around one of the aforementioned resistances will be rejected first.
Bitcoin would then again become the lows from early this year if not even lower. The price may then only find enough support at $35,000, $33,000 or $30,000. However, a dip below that, towards $27,000 – $28,000, is also not out of the question.
#Bitcoin Update.
Whether bull or bear, this corrective down leg completes both patterns and ultimately Wave 4. Where we finish will determine the count.
Bull count: 33-37k (Base case).
Bear count: Around last year’s lows.🧵1/ pic.twitter.com/9YaM9ZG2A9
— Steve ⚡ (@decodejar) Apr 30, 2022
Positive on-chain data for BTC
Meanwhile, the number of BTC that has not moved for at least a year continues to grow. It is now at a record percentage of 62.75%, a bullish signal in the long run.
supply of #Bitcoin Last Active 1+ Years Ago, continues to go parabolic and extend its all-time high. #Crypto
Currently = 64.75%
Remember my prediction is that this metric will top out between 66% – 68%, coinciding with the beginning of the next major uptrend of the #BTC cycle. pic.twitter.com/JTCe7w65nL
— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) Apr 29, 2022
The Bitcoin Lightning Network’s capacity is also currently rising towards a new all time high†
The public Lightning Network #Bitcoin capacity is back on track towards new all-time highs.
3671 $BTC are currently locked in. pic.twitter.com/46unw6cbmf
— Jan Wustenfeld 🇺🇦 (@JanWues) Apr 29, 2022
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The Pandemic Era Market in One Chart. pic.twitter.com/ckMkpjYe1g
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) Apr 29, 2022