Bitcoin (BTC) started rising yesterday, but it seemed likely that it was a fake out would go. Still, the price quickly found support after a small correction. Whether bitcoin can rise further and break out of this range seems to depend mainly on how traditional markets open later today. Despite the rising price, fear is on the rise again.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 10 – Extreme Fear
Current price: $30,238 pic.twitter.com/cUoiyOnOWq
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) May 23, 2022
Bitcoin price slowly climbing
The bitcoin price made a nice jump yesterday morning, but around $30,300 the resistance became too great. Still, bitcoin held up around $30,000 this time and started rising again by midnight. Bitcoin was able to break through $30,300 last night, but quickly ran into resistance around $30,500.
Bitcoin then found support around $30,200 and briefly broke through $30,500 this morning, but was just rejected at $30,600. The BTC price currently stands at $30,400 on KuCoin and $28,550 on Bitvavo.
Bitcoin closes in the red for the eighth week in a row
That means that bitcoin closed in the red for the eighth week in a row, a new record. It also means bitcoin is consolidating for the time being in an ever-tightening range. The price just pushed against the top of this symmetrical triangle, but was not able to break through it yet. It is expected that it will not be long before bitcoin breaks out of this.
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) May 22, 2022
US stock futures turn green
Macro still prevails and there are major concerns that stock markets like the S&P 500 will open in the red and drag bitcoin along. Despite this, US stocks are coloring futures premarket green this morning and immediately give a positive signal to bitcoin. Also, the correlation between the SPX price and BTC price is slowly decreasing.
Despite the small recovery, overall sentiment remains very bearish† Many analysts therefore expect that the downward trend will continue in the short and possibly medium term, even if bitcoin first recovers slightly. A retest of the recent low just below USD 27,000 is then possible and there is still a chance that bitcoin could even test the area between USD 20,000 and USD 24,000.
— ₿lake (@blaakke) May 22, 2022
Bitcoin volatility may follow soon
Meanwhile, analyst IT Tech reports that the leverage ratio and open interest increase in the derivatives market. That may mean volatility will increase and the last few times this has led to a pull back†
#Bitcoin derivatives update
🔴 Estimated Leverage Ratio ⬆️
🟡Open Interest ⬆️
It means that volatility is increasing ⬆️
Be careful because last few times observed price pullbacks.💡🧠 pic.twitter.com/N0ddICW8HA
— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) May 23, 2022
Not all bitcoin analysts are bearish
Still, analysts remain divided. The debate is heating up again as to whether bitcoin has been in a bear market for months or still in a mid-cycle correction of a bull market.
— JJ𝕔𝕪𝕔𝕝𝕖𝕤 🔄 (@JJcycles) May 22, 2022
Also, on-chain data still shows a positive picture. The number of wallet addresses with more than 1 BTC has reached a new record, Lark Davis reports:
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) May 23, 2022
On-chain College also reports that in the meantime no less than 65.4% of the total supply has not been moved for more than a year, a bullish signal:
An All-Time High 65.4% of the #Bitcoin Supply hasn’t moved in at least 1 year.
Looking over the history, this metric is a series of rolling higher highs and higher lows.
All eyes are on when this metric macro rolls over, as this has historically signaled the start of a rally pic.twitter.com/EkeBorUZ23
— OnChain College (@OnChainCollege) May 23, 2022
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Another chart that shows just how crazy the May 12 capitulation event was.
Aggregated stablecoin volume (USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI; fiat pairs only).
People sold everything to stabelcoins and then sold that for fiat. This might have been the biggest “panic” event we’ve ever had. pic.twitter.com/a9UIP4rn4p
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) May 22, 2022