On July 4, President Joe Biden gathered hundreds of people in front of the White House for an event that would have been unthinkable for many Americans the year before. With the coronavirus in retreat, they ate hamburgers and there were fireworks on the National Mall.
Although the pandemic was not yet over, Biden said, “we are closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus.” Across the country, mask requirements were falling as the number of infections and deaths fell.
Within weeks, even some of the president’s allies privately admitted that the speech had been premature. It would soon be known that the delta variant could infect people who had already been vaccinated. The even more contagious omicron variant would arrive months later, infecting millions.
“We expected to be free of the virus, and the virus had a lot more in store for us,” said Joshua Sharfstein, associate dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The number of people in the United States who have died from COVID-19 nearly doubled, from 605,000 to more than 1 million, in the past year.
That sunny Independence Day speech a year ago marked a crossroads for Biden’s presidency. The pandemic seemed to be abating, the economy was booming, inflation wasn’t rising as fast as it is today, and public approval of his job performance was strong.
As Biden approaches his second July 4th in the White House, his position couldn’t be more different. A series of miscalculations and unforeseen challenges have Biden struggling to keep his footing in a midterm election year. Even problems that were not Biden’s fault have fueled Republican efforts to retake control of Congress.
Following the resurgence of the pandemic came the debacle of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, when the Taliban took control of the country faster than expected.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February caused a global spike in gas prices, exacerbating inflation that hit a 40-year high in the United States. Another blow came in June, when the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion and restricted the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.
Biden has tried to win back the initiative at every turn, often with mixed results.
He enacted new gun restrictions after the massacres in New York and Texas, and is leading a reinvestment in European security as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth month. But he has limited tools at his disposal to deal with other challenges, such as rising prices and eroding access to abortion.
“People are in a bad mood,” said Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian.
The latest poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows Biden’s approval rating at 39%, the lowest since he took office and a sharp drop from 59% a year ago. Only 14% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 44%.
Douglas Brinkley, another historian, said Biden suffered from a case of presidential arrogance early in his term. He compared Biden’s July 4 speech last year to President George W. Bush’s infamous “Mission Accomplished” moment during the war in Iraq.
White House officials reject the comparison, noting that Biden warned of the “powerful” delta variant in his 2021 speech. Chris Meagher, a spokesman, said deaths from the virus are now at an all-time low.
“Fighting inflation and lowering prices is the president’s number one economic priority, and he is focused on doing everything he can to make sure the economy works for the American people,” he said. “And we’re in a strong position to transition from our historic jobs recovery to steady, steady growth thanks to the work we’ve done to get the pandemic under control. COVID is no longer the disruptive factor that it has been for so long.”
The promise to competently address the COVID-19 pandemic is what helped put Biden in the Oval Office and defeat Donald Trump. Since the beginning of Biden’s term, his public statements have been sober and cautious, wary of following his predecessor in predictions that did not come true.
Leana Wen, a professor of public health at George Washington University, said there is more reason to be optimistic this year. Immunity from previous vaccinations or infections is much more widespread, and antiviral treatments are effective in preventing hospitalization and death in vulnerable patients.
“It was premature to declare independence from COVID-19 last year,” he said. “But this year the country is in a totally different place and a much better place.”
But Wen says Biden might be careful, given how things went before.
“The administration is hesitant to make such proclamations now, when actually this is the time to do so,” Wen added.