On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Moscow would deploy “tactical” nuclear weapons on the territory of its neighbor and ally, Belarus. “There is nothing unusual here: the United States has been doing this for decades”, he justified, Belarus being on the borders of NATO, the EU and Ukraine . International reactions were quick, with kyiv accusing Russia of “taking Belarus hostage”. And if President Viktor Lukashenko still refuses to involve his country directly in the conflict, this is not the first time that Russian troops have been at home there for more than a year. 20 minutes unwind the thread for you.
January and February 2022, military exercises in the midst of a border crisis
While the migrant crisis on the border between Poland and Belarus is in full swing, Minsk indicated at the start of the year that Russian troops will carry out “operational preparation and combat” exercises on its soil. Joint maneuvers, called “Determination of the union 2022”, take place from February 10 to 20 on Belarusian military bases, in response to the strengthening of NATO defenses. According to Westerners, around 30,000 Russian soldiers, accompanied by trains loaded with equipment and tanks, are deployed in Belarus on this occasion.
February 24, 2022, an open front from Belarus
In the early hours of the war, Russian troops advance in eastern Ukraine. Nothing surprising in this, since the civil war has been raging since 2014 in the Donbass. What is, are those columns of tanks that appear northwest of kyiv at dawn. Russian troops advance towards the capital, only 150 kilometers from the border, and capture the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on the way, raising fears of a nuclear accident. “Our troops are not taking any part in this operation,” said Alexander Lukashenko the same day, during a meeting with the leaders of his army.
February 28, 2022, talks in Gomel
The Russian army is advancing rapidly, the suburbs of kyiv are being bombarded intensely. Vladimir Putin offers talks to Volodymyr Zelensky, hoping to secure a quick surrender. At the head of a suffering people, the Ukrainian president tries to impose his conditions for the place of the meeting: “Bratislava, Budapest, Istanbul, Warsaw, Baku…” Everywhere, except in Russia and Belarus. Question of security, of honor too. He finally accepts that a delegation goes to Gomel, a Belarusian city 300 kilometers north of kyiv. Russian diplomacy is taking up residence in Belarus. The meeting will yield nothing.
May 4, 2022, Belarus launches a new military exercise
Quickly, the Russian troops are pushed back in the north of the country, and the invasion is concentrated on the south and the east of Ukraine. But Kiev continues to be wary of a new front behind its back: on May 4, Minsk launches a surprise military exercise with the aim of “assessing the preparation and capacity of personnel to react quickly to a possible crisis”.
June 26, 2022, Putin promises Iskander missiles to Lukashenko
The vassal visits the master of the Kremlin, in Saint-Petersburg, at the beginning of the summer. Following a meeting between the two leaders, Vladimir Putin announced that “Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions”, will be transferred to Belarus ” in the coming months “. The Russian president also announces an upcoming modernization of Belarusian military aviation.
October 10, 2022, Russian and Belarusian troops deployed in the “Union”
“The training in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine of fighters including Belarusian radicals, to carry out sabotage, terrorist acts and a military uprising in the country, becomes a direct threat. This is how Alexander Lukashenko justifies the deployment, in mid-October, of a “regional grouping of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus”. The place of deployment of this group, which would include “up to 9,000 Russian soldiers” and 170 tanks, remains a mystery, but the term “Union” is dropped to designate a group formed by the two countries. “Yesterday, through unofficial channels, we were warned of a strike in preparation from Ukrainian territory on Belarus,” also said the Belarusian president.
December 19, 2022, Putin visits Belarus
For the first time in three and a half years, Vladimir Putin is going to Minsk himself. Rumors are rife about the reason for this visit, kyiv seeing it as an attempt to convince Alexander Lukashenko to go to war. “Stupid” and “baseless” allegations, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Officially, it is above all a question of talking about the development of the “strategic partnership” between the two countries, both in terms of economic cooperation and the “military and political situation”. But once again, Alexander Lukashenko reassures those who see it as a satellization: “The sovereignty and independence (of Belarus) are unshakable”.
December 29, 2022, a Ukrainian missile shot down
In the middle of the holiday season, Belarus says it has shot down a Ukrainian missile over its territory, for the first time since the start of the conflict. An incident that raises fears that Minsk will jump at the chance to go to war with a legitimate argument. Alexander Lukashenko, informed of the situation, will do nothing about it. The missile shot down was an anti-aircraft missile S-300, a priori lost during a failed interception of a Russian bombardment, and no damage was noted.
March 25, 2023, the entry into play of “tactical” nuclear weapons
The use of nuclear weapons remains one of the sea serpents of this war. The threat grows and then ebbs steadily, but the Russian troops have always had recourse to the power of the atom. However, London’s decision to send depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine, according to a British official, is not to Vladimir Putin’s liking. “Russia, of course, has something to answer for. We have, without exaggeration, hundreds of thousands of such shells. We are not using them at the moment, ”said the Russian president, threatening to use them if London carried out this delivery.
In the meantime, Russia is following the model of NATO by having weapons at its ally’s. “There is nothing unusual here: the United States has been doing this for decades. They have long been deploying their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allies,” says Vladimir Putin. “We agreed to do the same,” he added, saying he had the Minsk agreement. “From April 3, we begin to train the crews” of a dozen planes carrying this type of weapon. “And on July 1, we will complete the construction of a special warehouse for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus,” plans the Russian president.