Australia canceled submarine purchase: how torpedoing the “contract of the century” undermines relations between France and the United States

“France is a vital partner” in the Indo-Pacific region, said Thursday, September 16, the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken. Not enough to calm the ire of France, which accuses the United States of torpedoing the “contract of the century” signed with Australia in 2016 to buy 12 submarines, depriving it of 56 billion euros in the process.

US President Joe Biden on Wednesday announced a new Indo-Pacific alliance, a strategic partnership dubbed the Aukus, designed to curb China’s growing ambitions in the region. It is a military defense alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. It aims to deepen cooperation between the three countries in cyber defense, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. It includes the supply of American nuclear submarines to Australia, effectively excluding French submarines.

A decision experienced as a contempt for France. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian did not have words harsh enough to evoke his “anger” it’s him “bitterness” after this “unilateral decision, brutal, unpredictable” “This is not done between allies”, hammered the French ruler, who negotiated this contract when he was Minister of Defense in 2016. Can this geopolitical episode permanently affect relations between France and the United States?

This breach of contract occurs after a series of disagreements. After Donald Trump’s chaotic term, “France was thrilled with Joe Biden’s coming to power”, explains Franceinfo Marie-Christine Bonzom, political scientist and journalist specializing in the United States.

“That was before carrying out the ‘American interest first’ policy: American interests come first.”

Marie-Christine Bonzom

to France

“Disappointments multiply” since the new American president came to power, says the expert. European partners understood US priorities when Joe Biden came to Europe in June for the NATO and G7 summits. “The Sino-American rivalry above all. We saw this with the Final G7 Communiqué, where the United States first obtained the mention of China [à propos de sa politique commerciale jugée agressive], against the advice of France. From there, there were differences. “

In addition to the commercial issues of canceling the “contract of the century”, Paris denounces the lack of consultation, especially since this case comes after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. “At that time, France, like other European countries, deplored the lack, even the absence, of coordination with NATO countries in this withdrawal, confirms Marie-Christine Bonzom. It was a source of tension. “

After the announcement of the Aukus partnership, both sides of the Atlantic passed the ball throughout September 16th. “We have been in contact with our French colleagues for the past 24 to 48 hours to discuss Aukus, even before the announcement”, assured Antony Blinken. What France firmly denies. “We were not informed of this project prior to the publication of the first information in the American and Australian press” Wednesday, French embassy spokesman in Washington, Pascal Confavreux, told AFP.

According to a French diplomatic source contacted on Friday, September 17, by the political service of France Televisions, this decision is “very sudden, contrary to what Australians and Americans suggest.”

“The protagonists are numerous in this file and at a very high level, which makes many people who would have been naive.”

A French diplomatic source

in the political service of France Télévisions

According to this diplomatic source, “reacting with heat is not the right thing to do. Emmanuel Macron’s reaction will come in due course.”

“The French thought Joe Biden would smooth things over when he came to power: actually, there’s a difference in style, but it’s the same foreign policy as Trump.”, explains Marie-Christine Bonzom. A policy initiated since the mandate of Barack Obama, namely the crystallization of rivalries with China, in a scenario of trade war. “It’s the double blade. To the surprise of the breach of contract, the surprise of a question about what it means to ‘be allies’ was added, squeaks a French diplomatic source. We discovered the Aukus alliance during the press conference. Everyone is surprised, whether it’s Angela Merkel yesterday or others in Europe. There is a kind of Trump-Biden continuum. “

In addition to the Sino-American conflict, Joe Biden is keen to divert the attention of American public opinion to an issue other than the disastrous withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. “It’s dropping in the polls across the Atlantic, so there’s a real desire to change the subject.”

“It is true that we have a small diplomatic crisis on the table”, summarizes Annick Cizel, a specialist in American foreign policy at the Parisian University of the Sorbonne, quoted by AFP. However, according to Marie-Christine Bonzom, France cannot afford a major crisis, “she doesn’t have enough weight”, despite its indisputable presence in the Indo-Pacific area.

France responded by canceling a gala scheduled for Friday at the embassy in Washington, “But it’s symbolic. We see that France is limited in the current general geopolitical context, not in a position to pressure the United States.”, sums up Marie-Christine Bonzom, while affirming that “It is not a rupture, cooperation in the Indo-Pacific zone will continue.”

In your opinion, onlyFrance actually discovered the Aukus contract through the press, the issue of communication between French and American diplomacy, “as well as the analytical skills of French intelligence, ” comes up. A concern of a weakening of France on the international scene that Pierre Servent does not share, questioned by franceinfo: “Australians have launched into a miraculous gift”, corn “does not weaken France” because the strategic partnership between the two countries is “truly intense” particularly in the collaboration of their navies. On the contrary, the defense and geopolitics expert sees this as a weakening of the United States, and I think this setback is “largely perceived as the fact that Americans are stepping up their punches to get their heads out of the water.”