The scientific community is closely watching the 2024 YR4 asteroid, which was discovered on December 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (Atlas) in Chile. According to calculations, this asteroid could potentially hit the Earth in 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) has released new data on the asteroid, indicating that it has an approximate diameter of 40 to 90 meters. The possibility of the asteroid impacting the Earth has been increasing since its discovery and has now reached 1.9%, a relatively low figure that is still being reviewed.
The United Nations planetary security protocol has been activated for the first time in history due to this potential threat. The Space Missions Planning Consultative Group (SMPAG), chaired by the ESA, and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), chaired by NASA, are currently in charge of monitoring the asteroid. It is expected that they can continue to track the asteroid until April, after which it will no longer be detectable from land observatories. However, the asteroid’s trajectory will bring it back into the Earth’s vicinity in 2028 and again in 2032.
In terms of potential impact zones, the IAWN issued a notification on January 29 indicating that the Eastern Pacific, northern South America, southern Asia, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and the Arabian Sea could be at risk in the worst-case scenarios. The 2024 YR4 asteroid is considered relatively small, and if it were to impact the Earth, it could cause an explosion similar in size to the island of Gran Canaria. If the asteroid is less than 50 meters in size, the SMPAG would recommend evacuating the impact zone.
According to Juan Luis Cano, Coordinator of the Information Service of the ESA, there are “98.5% possibilities that the asteroid will not impact the Earth.” The recent notifications about the asteroid’s progress are a reminder that experts need to pay special attention to this particular asteroid as part of their protocols. Despite the low probability of impact, the scientific community will continue to monitor the asteroid closely to ensure public safety.