The Earth has a significant event looming on the horizon for December 22, 2032 – one that has nothing to do with the Christmas, but rather the potential impact of an asteroid estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in size. The probability of this event, according to the US space agency NASA, has been steadily increasing and now stands at 3.1%, or 1 in 32, making it the highest impact risk in recorded history.
This asteroid, designated as YR4, was first discovered on December 27, 2024, with an initial impact forecast of 1%. However, in recent days, both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have raised their predictions, with the ESA citing a probability of 1.8%. Although the asteroid is relatively small, it could still generate a significant impact, potentially capable of destroying an entire city, but it would not compromise planetary security. Experts estimate that an asteroid of this size, approximately 54 meters in diameter, would release 8 megatons of energy upon impact – 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.
What’s particularly noteworthy is that YR4 has exceeded the highest probability ever granted to an asteroid on the Turin Impact Risk Scale, currently classified as Level 3. The previous record holder was Apophis, identified as one of the potentially most dangerous asteroids detected, with a risk that once reached 2.7%. For context, the Turin Impact Risk Scale is used to categorize the impact hazard of near-Earth objects, with Level 3 indicating a significant impact that could cause local or regional devastation.
To put everyone’s minds at ease, the ESA reminds us that the probability of an asteroid impact usually increases initially before falling to zero after further observations. This was the case with Apophis, whose risk eventually went to zero, and it’s now predicted to pass within 32,000 kilometers of Earth’s surface in 2029. Since the beginning of January, astronomers have been making priority monitoring observations using telescopes worldwide and incorporating new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid’s size and trajectory.
A Planetary Protocol
Last Wednesday, February 5, the UN activated its planetary security protocol for the first time, which consists of a set of mechanisms and guidelines to prepare the planet for a possible asteroid impact. While the risk is low, it’s essential to be prepared, and this protocol is triggered when probabilities exceed 1%. The protocol outlines a framework for international cooperation, including early warning systems, impact prediction, and evacuation procedures.
It’s still too early to determine exactly where the impact could occur, although the potential impact zones have been roughly outlined to include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic, Western and Central Africa, the Arabian Sea, or South Asia. The cities with the highest risk include Bogotá, Abiyán, Lagos, Jardum, Bombay, Calcuta, and Dacca.
To put this potential impact into perspective, it’s worth flipping the probability on its head: that 3.1% chance of impact, as calculated by NASA, means there’s a 96.9% chance it won’t happen. Moreover, YR4 is just one of 1,741 asteroids with a probability of colliding with our planet, and the vast majority of those have very low probabilities. So, while it’s essential to be aware of the potential risk, we shouldn’t live in anguish over the next seven years. Instead, let’s keep things in perspective and appreciate the vastness of space and the many wonders it holds.