Update February 10: The likelihood that Asteroid 2024 YR4 meets the earth has now been newly calculated with 2.3 percent (NASA) or 2.2 percent (ESA). Before that, the probability was 1.2 percent!
Generally, when astronomers discuss an asteroid that is close to the earth, the probability of it actually hitting the earth is usually very low. However, in the case of Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in 2024 by a telescope in Chile, the situation is different. This asteroid has a relatively high probability of hitting the earth, according to astronomical conditions. On the corresponding Risk list, it is currently at the top.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately 60 meters in diameter. While it is currently over 43 million kilometers away from Earth, in December 2032, it will come as close as 106,000 kilometers. To put this into perspective, the average distance of the moon from the earth is 384,400 km. The close proximity of the asteroid to the earth poses a certain risk that it could actually hit the earth, as it is impossible to calculate its exact trajectory.
Scientists have calculated that Asteroid 2024 YR4 could meet the earth on December 22, 2032, with a probability of 1.2 percent or 1:83. This may seem like a low probability, but it is considered very high in astronomical terms. Asteroid researcher David Rankin has commented on the situation, stating that this is one of the highest probabilities for the impact of a rock of considerable size that has ever existed, ranking it as a Turin scale 3.
This is one of the highest probabilities for the impact of a rock of considerable size that has ever existed, so that it is a Turiner scale 3.
Rankin also notes that the most likely result is still an almost certain miss, and astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory. The Turin scale is a method used to classify the risk of an asteroid impact, taking into account both the likelihood of impact and the potential effects of the impact.
The exact composition of Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently unknown, and it is unclear what size the asteroid would be if it were to hit the earth. Additionally, the potential damage would depend on various factors, including the location of the impact. According to Space.com, a possible impact zone could be a corridor over South America, the Atlantic, and Africa south of the Sahara.
What damage could Asteroid 2024 YR4 do on earth?
The potential damage caused by Asteroid 2024 YR4 is still uncertain, but astronomers will have a closer look at the asteroid in December 2028, when it comes relatively close to the earth. After that, the risk assessment should be more accurate. An overview of the asteroid’s approaches to the earth is provided by the ESA table.
It is essential to continue monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory to better understand the potential risks and consequences. While the probability of impact is still considered low, it is crucial to be prepared and take necessary precautions to mitigate any potential damage.
