Apple is projected to surpass Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone vendor by the end of 2025, ending its rival’s 14-year dominance in the global market.
This shift would mark the first time Apple has held the top position since 2011.
Global technology market research firm Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple to sell over 243 million iPhones by the close of 2025, capturing 19.4% of the worldwide smartphone market share.
Samsung, the current leader, is expected to sell 235 million units, representing 18.7% of the market.
Apple’s anticipated success is largely attributed to the strong performance of its iPhone 17 Series, which includes the standard iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max models.
Sales for the iPhone 17 Series in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 9% compared to the iPhone 16 Series during the same period in 2024.
Demand for the iPhone 17 Series in the United States grew by 12% in its first four weeks on the market, when compared to the iPhone 16 Series’ initial four-week performance in 2024.
Similarly, demand in China for the new series saw an 18% increase over the same comparative period.
Apple is also benefiting from a wave of upgrades from consumers who purchased iPhones during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These users are now due for new devices in 2025.
Additionally, a significant number of users who acquired 358 million second-hand iPhones between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025 are also looking to upgrade.
Looking ahead, Apple has an aggressive product roadmap that analysts believe will further solidify its market position.
The company plans to introduce a more affordable iPhone 17e in the first quarter of 2026, following the iPhone 16e.
Apple’s first standard foldable iPhone is expected to launch in late 2026, with its first flip-style foldable iPhone slated for late 2027.
Counterpoint Research analysts anticipate Apple will significantly widen its lead over Samsung in the next two to three years. They project Apple will likely maintain its status as the global smartphone leader until at least 2029.