Twenty years ago, al-Qaida made itself known to the world by attacking the American superpower in the heart. Two decades later, the organization founded by Osama bin Laden hardly resembles what it was on September 11, 2001, analysis for CNEWS Antoine Basbous, political scientist specializing in Islamist terrorism and founder of the Observatory of Arab countries .
Is there a before and after 9/11 for al-Qaida?
September 11 was the height of al-Qaida. It pulled off a blow that no other terrorist or state organization had succeeded, that is to say, to strike the American sanctuary, with means that were derisory. At the time, it was on the offensive, had bases in Afghanistan and everything needed to train, to strike. al-Qaida was like a fish in water.
After that, there was the backlash. It resulted in the occupation of Afghanistan by the American army, the tracking down of members of the organization, the pressure on the countries which hosted or collaborated with al-Qaida, with the climax, ten years later, the elimination of its emblematic leader, Osama bin Laden.
Antoine Basbous, director and founder of the Observatory of Arab countries (© DR).
All this therefore resulted in a weakening of al-Qaida …
Yes, because the structures of the organization have been dissolved. It lost its territorial base in Afghanistan. As for the other countries which hosted al-Qaida, their governments no longer dared to tolerate it, in view of the pressures undergone and of what it could cost them. They started hitting al-Qaida, which now posed a threat to these Islamic governments.
How did al-Qaida transform?
With the Afghan sanctuary gone, al-Qaida has prospered more in other lands, in Africa – notably in the Sahel with its Aqmi branch (al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb) – or even in Sinai. But it is no longer the parent organization that gives instructions or organizes attacks. Now they are ideologized people who act in small groups or individually, claiming to be al-Qaida doctrine.
Because the ideology has remained. This bellicose, hateful and retrograde Islamism has been declined by other organizations, which are inspired by the same dogma, the same ideological and theological base. This was particularly the case with Daesh subsequently.
Daesh, unlike al-Qaida, has territorial ambitions
Can we say that Daesh “outdated” al-Qaida?
Daesh was an update of the doctrine of al-Qaida, and in a way a territorialized version. Daesh, unlike al-Qaida, has territorial ambitions. We therefore went from a network – al-Qaida – to a State – Daesh -, with borders, a flag, an administration …
While al-Qaida was weakened and fragmented over many countries and continents, Daesh focused mainly on two countries (Syria and Iraq), which allowed it to have a territorial base and attraction on people the group sent to carry out attacks.
Twenty years after the attacks of September 11, is al-Qaida no longer able to plan an attack of the same magnitude in the West?
al-Qaida is hunted down, shattered, on the defensive. It no longer has leadership, structure, command, or inspiration. She somewhat survives the disappearance of her creator and leader, Osama bin Laden, and her son, who was to succeed her and was also eliminated. Now, Ayman al-Zawahiri is leading the organization. He is aging, he expresses himself very little, he hides himself. al-Qaida today no longer has the means to organize itself to plan a major attack, similar to September 11.
Does the recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan raise fears of a reconstitution of al-Qaida in the country?
Only the future will tell us. This will depend in particular on which branch of the Taliban takes over. If it is that of Anas Haqqani, at the head of a network linked to the Taliban, and close to al-Qaida, Afghanistan could once again welcome the organization on its territory, as well as other formations of this nature. On the other hand, if it is the branch of Mullah Baradar, who spent eight years in prison and a few years in Qatar, and negotiated with the Americans, it will not lend its territory to al-Qaida.