The crypto market is facing a major turnaround given the recent developments surrounding Binance and its now former CEO Changpeng Zhao. Bitcoin (BTC) rising above $40,000 is “inevitable” this year, according to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen. This prediction follows Binance’s settlement with the US Department of Justice and CZ’s admission of guilt over financial violations.
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The Binance agreement as a turning point
The settlement with Binance means the company will have to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. CZ, who resigned as CEO, will personally have to pay a $50 million fine and may also face 18 months in prison, although some reports suggest a harsher punishment. This outcome, which is more lenient than a feared $10 billion fine and does not accuse Binance of misusing user funds or market manipulation, suggests that Binance will remain a top three exchange, Thielen said.
“We expect Bitcoin to break above $38,000 by the end of this month with an 80% probability, followed by a rally above $40,000 in December with a 90% probability,” Thielen added.
Bitcoin and ETF Opportunities Recovery
Although the news surrounding Binance was initially classified as a risk, Bitcoin only showed a temporary correction. Thielen expects Bitcoin to surpass $38,000 by the end of this month with an 80% probability, followed by a rally above $40,000 in December with a 90% probability. This recovery is further supported by the expected approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US.
The current macroeconomic environment also appears to be favorable for cryptocurrencies: expectations are for inflation to halve to 1.6% and bond yields to fall to 2.60% in 2024 or 2025. This would bring an upward movement in the stock market, which is often correlated with cryptocurrencies. All of these factors together point to an optimistic future for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
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