The number of operational nuclear weapons increased last yearat the same time that the powers promote their programs to expand and modernize their arsenals, the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies (SIPRI) warned on Monday.
Of the total estimated 12,512 nuclear warheads possessed by the nine atomic powers (United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) in January 2023, around 9,576 were in arsenals for use. potential, 1% more than a year ago.
Of those, about 3,844 warheads were deployed on missiles and aircraft and about 2,000, almost all from the United States and Russia, in a state of high operational alertaccording to a report by this body, which nevertheless notes a year-on-year drop of almost two points in the global nuclear arsenal.
The size of the arsenal of these two countries, which together account for 90% of the total nuclear weapons, “seems to have remained relatively stable“, although transparency in that area has declined in the wake of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
SIPRI estimates that China has increased its number of warheads by 17% in the last year and it is expected to continue to grow so that by the end of this decade it could have as many ICBMs as Russia or the US.
The report expects the UK to increase its number of warheads in the future following the government announcement in 2021 and notes that France is continuing its development programs for third-generation nuclear ballistic submarine missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.
India and Pakistan also appear to be expanding their arsenals, while North Korea continues to prioritize its nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy.
SIPRI estimates that Pyongyang has mounted around thirty warheads and that it has enough fissionable material for between fifty and seventy more, which is a “significant” increase compared to a year earlier.
Israel, which does not publicly admit to possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernizing its arsenal.
“Most of the nuclear powers are harshening the rhetoric about the importance of these weapons and even using explicit or implicit threats about their potential use.. This nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk of nuclear weapons being used for the first time since World War II,” the report warned.
SIPRI also warns that the increase in geopolitical tension and the closure of communication channels increases the risk of “miscalculations, misunderstandings and accidents” to “unacceptably high” levels.
“There is an urgent need to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international controls on nuclear weapons,” denounces the report from this institute dedicated to conflict research, weapons, arms control and disarmament, created in 1966 and based in Stockholm.
