Agricultural and fisheries production in Latin America and the Caribbean will increase by 12% in the next decade but at a “slower” pace than in the past and among challenges such as the volatility of world trade, as predicted today in a report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“Agricultural and fisheries production in the region is expected to expand by 12% by 2032, markedly slower than in the past,” reads the document with the global perspectives of the FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Economic (ECDE).
The agencies estimate that almost 70% of growth will come from crop productionwhich will increase by 17%, while livestock and fishing will experience a “more moderate” boom of 11% and 10% in the next ten years, respectively.
In this sense, they point out, “exports are key to sustained agricultural growth” and this region with 2,000 million cultivated hectares and “abundant agricultural resources” will face numerous challenges, like the rest of the world.
The report highlights in the first place that by 2032 Latin America is expected to capture a quota of world export of more than 30% corn, soybeans, sugar, beef, poultry and flour.
“The importance of exports for the region’s agriculture is underscored by its central position in world trade and its central role in driving production growth,” he alleges.
But, at the same time, he warns that a “sustained” growth of Latin American and Caribbean crops will depend on the world maintaining “its orientation towards an open global market.”
In other words, the prosperity of agriculture in the region will also depend on its foreign buyersof exports, and for this reason “in the next decade the evolution of commercial relations in various parts of the world” will count a lot for producers, creating “new opportunities and risks”.
“Although export-led growth has done good” for Latin America and the Caribbean -although countries like Panama and El Salvador are essentially importers- “the global market is increasingly volatile and international trade more fragile” amid geopolitical tensions , like the war in Ukraine, for example.
Another factor that could vary production is the climate crisis. The region, especially Brazil, already represents more than half of the world’s soybean crop and its share is expected to reach 54% in 2032, but the 2021 drought made it more expensive.
Climate change
“Given continued climate change, these phenomena could become more frequent. In fact, many countries in the region are already challenged by prolonged dry conditions that influence their production potential, as well as by the presence of natural disasters such as fires,” notify the agencies.
Under “normal” climatic conditions, they allege, Latin America “has the potential to fill the gaps” in production generated by the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty in the Black Sea area after the invasion of the Russian Federation.
The document explains that the region faces the challenge of alleviating misery, especially when in 2021 the rate of extreme poverty increased to 13.8% in Latin America, at levels not seen for more than a quarter of a century, a figure confirmed by ECLAC.
Against this backdrop, the feed has seen “a decade of gains in total calorie availability have largely stalled since 2015.”
This is due to the decrease in people’s income levels, due to “macroeconomic instability”, as well as the pandemic and the increase in prices.
“By 2023, per capita intake is expected to reach 3,111 kilocalories per person per year, but that is slow 3% growth for a decade. This would mean a boom of only 89 kilocalories per person per day,” the report warns.
In this area, food, organizations warn that sugar consumption in the region continues to be “high”, almost 65% above the global average.