If it were possible to assign a color to the conflict in Ukraine in recent hours, it seems that the scarlet red has cleared up to marry a more orange hue during the day. On Tuesday, a missile killed two people in a Polish village six kilometers from the Ukrainian border, raising fears of an escalation in the conflict. At first, doubts about the origin of the shot sent world leaders into a frenzy.
“If a Russian missile had fallen and the intentional nature of the firing had been proven, the activation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty would have obliged the signatory countries to come to the aid of the attacked country, Poland. We could have found ourselves at war in a few hours, says Dominique Vidal, journalist and historian, co-author of the geopolitical analysis book The world will not be like before*. But no one wants it, neither Putin nor Westerners. »
Despite the accusations from kyiv, eyes turned towards Moscow, Polish President Andrzej Duda finally swept the trail of the attack, in favor of an “unfortunate accident” probably caused by a Ukrainian projectile.
“You shouldn’t get carried away on the climb, it’s going to come down fairly quickly. The Poles are on the job, they are very worried, like the Baltic countries, because the war is on their border. It is still an attack on their territory. But the activation of article 5 is not at all automatic, reassures Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise. No one has an interest in an escalation on NATO territory. The Polish defense system could be strengthened. »
Germany offers military aid to Poland
In fact, military solidarity with Poland, which joined NATO in 1999, was quickly organised. Berlin offered to come to Warsaw’s aid by flying air patrols. “It can happen tomorrow, if Poland wishes,” said the spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense.
On the 266th day of war, the escalation of the conflict allows the European allies of the United States to “close ranks”. It seems a long time since Emmanuel Macron declared NATO brain dead three years ago. “Since then, the dead man has woken up. All countries reaffirmed their participation. Germany has invested 100 billion euros in its own army, neutral countries like Sweden and Finland want to join, ”explains Dominique Vidal.
Ukraine maintains its accusations against Moscow
Ukraine, for its part, maintains its accusations against Russia, saying that it is ready to “put back the trace of the Russian evidence”. “The missile was Russian”, insists Volodymyr Zelensky. If this version is not shared by NATO, the organization took advantage of this rise in tension to reiterate its support for kyiv in its “right to self-defense”, while Russia fired a hundred missiles during Tuesday in the capital and in several other cities. And for the White House, Russia is “ultimately responsible” for this missile launch.
And, if the tension has subsided, the situation is being closely monitored by the leaders of the G7, pending the outcome of the investigation into this missile launch. Before the appeasement or the conflagration?
* Book co-written with Bertand Badie, published by Les liens qui liberantes, published this Wednesday, November 16