After the legislative elections, how will the coalition be formed in Germany?

Finding out the name of the next chancellor in Germany will probably take several weeks, if not several months. After the provisional results of the legislative elections on Monday, won by the Social Democrats of the SPD and their leader Olaf Scholz with 25.7% of the vote, negotiations between the different parties begin this Monday morning.

The leaderships of the various parties, likely to enter into a future coalition, are due to meet this Monday morning in Berlin to start long negotiations. What are the results of the elections? How will the negotiations go? What are the different possible scenarios? 20 minutes takes stock of the future government coalition in Germany.

What are the results of the legislative elections?

The Social Democratic Party of Germany, the SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel’s current finance minister, came slightly ahead in the general elections, with 25.7% of the vote, according to the provisional results communicated this Monday. “It’s surprising because the polls gave the SPD a much lower score. Not only did he come back up, but he also came out on top. This is the third time since 1949 ”, explains to 20 minutes Paul Maurice, researcher at the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). For the specialist, “Olaf Scholz benefited from the mistakes of his opponents, who were not very good. In addition, he embodies a form of stability, he is the current Minister of Finance ”.

The chancellor’s conservative CDU-CSU union, led by Armin Laschet, came second with 24.1% of the vote, just behind the SPD, its worst result in the federal elections since 1949. “This is the first time. that the conservatives obtain less than 30% ”, analyzes Paul Maurice, who qualifies the score of“ historic failure for the party of Angela Merkel ”. In September 2017, during the last legislative elections, the CDU-CSU had obtained 33%, recalls the Deutsche Welle.

The Greens came third in the ballot with 14.8% of the vote, ahead of the Liberals of the FDP, the Liberal Democrat Party, which won 11.5% of the vote. The AfD, the Eurosceptic and nationalist German political party, takes fifth place, with 10.3% of the vote. As for the leftist party, Die Linke, it places sixth with 4.9% of the votes.

How will the negotiations unfold?

Negotiations between the various parties likely to enter into a future coalition will begin this Monday morning in Berlin, the very day after the general elections. “The poker game begins,” warned the German daily Der Spiegel. The negotiations will take place in two phases, decrypts Paul Maurice: “The first phase is that of consultation. The parties will discuss among themselves, in particular the Greens and the Liberals of the FDP, arrived 3rd and 4th, who will meet and negotiate. Once they have come to an agreement, they will choose whether to discuss with the SPD or the CSU-CDU, ”explains the researcher.

“The second phase is that of the coalition. The parties will agree on what will be in the “coalition contract”. In particular, they will negotiate ministerial portfolios. The SPD, for example, is eyeing the Ministry of the Economy, while the Greens want the Ministry of Ecology, it is a big point of negotiations ”, continues Paul Maurice. According to the specialist, these negotiations could last several weeks, even several months. “Normally, it takes two months, two and a half months. It is for this reason that the parties have set themselves the objective of forming a coalition before Christmas, ”he said. But it might take longer. At the end of the previous election in 2017, it had already taken six months for the parties to find a right-left government, in the meantime leading to political paralysis in Germany, especially on European issues.

Read Also:  Jon Rahm was caught lying: The golf world is in turmoil

What are the possible scenarios for the future coalition?

In Germany, it is not the voters who directly elect the head of government but the deputies, once a majority has been established. The latter is this time particularly complicated to form because it will probably have to bring together three parties – never seen since the 1950s – due to a crumbling of votes. But the two camps, the SPD and the CDU-CSU union, claim to form the future government and each intend to try to find a majority in Parliament. According to specialists, everything will depend on the Greens and Liberals of the FDP, arrived 3rd and 4th, qualified Monday by the daily Bild of “kingmakers”.

In Germany, alliances are represented by colors that reflect those of the flags of each party. “The first scenario is that of a negotiation between the SPD (red), the Greens (green) and the FDP (yellow), this is called the” traffic light “. The second is that it is the CDU-CSU (black) which discusses with the Greens (green) and the FDP (yellow), what is called “Jamaica” “, decrypts Paul Maurice, who recalls that a three-party coalition would be a first in Germany.

The third option is a renewal of the “GroKo”, the grand coalition between the CDU-CSU and the SDP, currently in power. “But this is the least likely option, because there is a form of voter fatigue. It is the compromise solution of course, but it means that there will be no change of political line, ”continues the researcher. Whether it is the SPD or the CDU-CSU, the Greens and the FDP will have a place in the government, believes Paul Maurice. “Currently, the Greens were the last party in the Bundestag. From now on, they will move to third place, it’s a huge progression, ”he adds.

Recent Articles

Related News

Leave A Reply

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here