Research indicates global advertising expenditure is projected to reach an unprecedented milestone this year, surpassing a remarkable figure of over a billion dollars, with forecasts suggesting a 10.7% surge to achieve a tremendous $1.08 trillion. Compared to August projections, this development is thought to signify a 0.2% increase, positioning it as the most substantial growth in nearly six years.
This noteworthy information, as outlined in the comprehensive report Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 Q4 courtesy of a reputable consulting firm, alludes to sustained growth in the advertising sector for the coming years, albeit at a tempered pace. The industry is set to experience a 7.6% growth spurt in the following year and a 7% expansion in 2026 (+7%). This remarkable trajectory could ultimately lead to a global advertising market worth $1.24 trillion.
The future for advertising across major channels
The report provides a comprehensive breakdown of advertising expenditures across various media channels. While digital advertising continues to take center stage, linear Television, notably, is demonstrating renewed growth. Specifically, linear television spending is forecasted to witness a notable increase of 1.9%, reaching $153.6 billion towards the end of the year, following two consecutive years of decline.
The increase is partly attributed to several high-profile events, encompassing key elections and sports spectacles such as the celebrated 2024 Paris Olympic Games and the thrilling 2024 European Football Championship. However, the data highlights the continued downturn experienced by traditional television over the last decade; its relative proportion of global advertising spend has reduced considerably to 14.3% – drastically decreasing from its peak of 41.3% in 2013.
Rapid digitalization is driving other formats; internet advertising expenditure, encompassing leading players such as Alphabet, Amazon, or Meta, forecasts a substantial 14.1% growth to a cumulative $741.4 billion. Representing nearly 68.8% of all advertising investment, this phenomenal expansion underscores the internet’s extensive significance within the current advertising sector.
Social media platforms too, as it stands, indicate they will comfortably achieve a healthy sum of $252.7 billion towards the year-end, accounting for 23.5% of all global advertising activities. Social media platforms are also set to appreciate an upward revision in forecasts, reaching 19.3% growth due in large part to significant year-to-date positive results for the trio of Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok.
Radio advertising abroad has reportedly experienced a remarkable 7.2% growth spurt to reach a cumulative $52.8 billion at the close of the current year. This trend indicates that forecasts reveal a promising outlook for the subsequent years – an increase of 6.2% in the next calendar year followed by 3.1% growth in 2026.
Additionally, cinema advertising sector reports a commendable expansion, growing at 6.2%, with similar growth reported for the “heritage” or traditional advertising mediums that consist of both physical and digital formats – these anticipate 3.8% growth to an impressive record high of $335.6 billion. Conversely, conventional radio could experience 2.3% decline, alongside 2.4% projected decreases for traditional print-based products.
A key role in internet search: evaluating Google’s market share
The consultancy draws critical attention to Google’s market presence and their reported 90.1% dominance over the global search advertising market (excluding China.) Indeed, 1 out of every 5 U.S. search engine marketing dollars gets funneled towards Google.
In response to formal charges against them filed by the U.S. Department of Justice suggesting monopolistic conduct, Google is forced to divest a portion of its substantial Chrome holdings, including severing ties with manufacturers of smartphones.
Google is predicted to have an estimated 13% yearly growth at the end of the year. Despite this prediction and the 7% growth the following year and 5.1% year on year expected increase for a platform such as Bing, Google shows little indication of relinquishing its market dominance to its competitors in the years to come.
Concerted retailer investment to boost year-end advertising activity
The projected consumer retail market spending appears optimistic compared with last year’s. A major annual advertising spree is poised to inject significant investment into the sector.
According to the Warc forecast, more than half ($299.2billion) of all Q4 Advertising revenue will originate directly from fourth-quarter advertiser commitments. A quarter of that sum (10.2% on last year) will occur around the pivotal Christmas season.
Retail firms are predicted to invest $45.6 billion in year-end advertising (a modest growth of 5% on last year). In the same timeframe, TV’s predicted advertising expenditure stands at $6.8 billion to account for nearly 15.9% of all spending, while advertising on Connected Televisions (CTV) is forecast to absorb nearly a quarter share of TV’s advertisement investment.
More optimistic projections are also on the horizon for retail media. It is predicted a global spend of $46.2 billion towards year end – another new high.
An expected growth of 16.4% indicates that this rapidly-evolving domain holds much significance in closing the year on a significant note. A further notable performance will be provided by Amazon in this market. By the end of the year, an impressive $16.9 billion dollars will be earned through advertising by this retailing giant and multinational technology group.
The effect of Canadian government restrictions on social media
The Canadian government has officially shut down access to global commercial social media app TikTok – citing it as a direct security threat. Canadian residents have not been restricted from utilizing the application.
The Canadian restrictions have resulted in concern over the future performance for Advertisers across Tiktok’s social media platform.
Sustained growth patterns suggest global Ad investment will reach a 27.1% $17.8 billion growth across Q3 of this year. Estimated predictions for Q3 across ’24 show an international Ad expansion of 25.9%, which is $24.6 billion (China not included). Estimated figures are only 9.1% of total worldwide Ad commitments on social media platforms, however.
This ruling indicates that any prohibition on TikTok operating within a national market space would not deter Advertising budgets and could instead become diverted towards competing media players such as Instagram, YouTube, or Snapchat.