– Are we closer to a Biden-Trump rematch after Trump’s great start in the Republican primaries?
– A rematch between Biden and Trump is very likely unless there is a serious health issue. Not even Trump’s legal troubles will stop him from becoming a candidate in November. In theory, Trump could run for president from prison (not that I expect him to be in prison come election time). In 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs ran for president while in prison for sedition (related to his opposition to World War I), winning nearly a million votes. Debs was pardoned by new President Warren G. Harding. If re-elected, I doubt Joe Biden would be inclined to pardon Trump, but it could become a point of discussion. For example, if Trump accepts that he lost and gracefully concedes the election, Biden might be willing to pardon him. Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon in part to try to end Watergate and move the country forward. On the other hand, Trump may have crossed too many red lines for this to happen.
-How would a second Trump term affect the United States?
– There are many checks and balances that limit an American president. It cannot pass new laws without congressional approval. The Senate will most likely go Republican next year, but it’s unclear how the House will fare. Even though Trump enjoyed shared control of Congress, it is not entirely clear what important legislation he plans to enact. Trump appears to be more focused on his use of executive orders and his direct prerogatives as president. There are places where you can really change policy, but only in certain policy areas. We should ask ourselves: How different will Trump 2.0 be from Trump 1.0? In many ways they will probably be quite similar. He will use his executive orders to roll back environmental regulations introduced by Joe Biden. He will fill the executive and judicial branches with people who share his worldview. He will take drastic measures on immigration. However, there will be some differences. First, Trump believes he wasn’t as successful as president the first time around because he didn’t have enough loyal people in the federal bureaucracy. His team will have spent more time identifying loyalists, so there will likely be less internal resistance to him in federal government operations than there was during his first term. Second, there is some uncertainty about what Trump’s foreign policy will be. He has broken with traditional US foreign policy in some respects – such as his trade war with China and his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement – but it is quite surprising how much Biden has inherited from his predecessor in terms of foreign policy actions. Biden has joined Ukrainians in repelling the Russian invasion of their country, and some speculate that Trump will be more inclined to call for peace, but that is really uncertain. In fact, I’m not sure Biden remains as committed to Ukraine as we think. His withdrawal from Afghanistan shows that he is a president who is sometimes willing to “cut corners” on the international stage.
