Germany is considering an option armed confrontation against Russia in 2024 or 2025. This emerges from a secret Bundeswehr document published by the “Bild” newspaper and does not rule out an escalation of the conflict by Russia, leading to an armed conflict with NATO.
“Weighing up different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of daily military practice, especially in the training of the Bundeswehr,” said Defense Ministry spokesman Arne Collatz at the regular press conference.
The document refers to a scenario of “Alliance Defense 2025,” which would involve the deployment of “hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and an imminent outbreak of war in the summer of 2025,” according to the picture. According to the document, Russia would begin a further mobilization of 200,000 troops in February and launch an offensive in Ukraine that, “reinforced by wavering Western support for Kiev,” would deliver results in June and gradually push back Ukrainian troops.
According to the German scenario, Russia's initially covert and then increasingly open attack on the West would begin in July. The Kremlin would provoke new crises with severe cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare such as incitement against Russian ethnic minorities, especially in the Baltic countries.
“Bild” assures that the scenario envisages confrontations that Russia would use as an excuse to start exercises with Belarus with 50,000 soldiers from September.
In fact, Russia would mass troops on the border with Poland and Lithuania, move troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad in October, and continue to arm the enclave with “the propaganda lie of an impending NATO attack.”
“The Kremlin's secret goal would be to capture the Suwalki Corridor, a 65-kilometer-long area on the border between Poland and Lithuania., located between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, says 'Bild'. According to the scenario, from December 2024 there would be an artificially induced “border conflict” and “unrest with numerous deaths” in the area, already on NATO soil.
A special meeting of the NATO, in which Poland and the Baltic states would report a growing threat from Russia. RIn March, the U.S. would move additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus, establishing two armored divisions, an armored infantry division and a headquarters by then, for a total of 70,000 troops.
In May 2025, NATO would finally take action “credible deterrent measures” to prevent a Russian attack on Suwalki from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad. According to the Bundeswehr, on “X” day the alliance would station 300,000 men on its eastern flank, including 30,000 German soldiers.
