Lucasfilm’s grand return to theatrical releases is hitting a wall. The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently tracking for a steep 69 percent drop in its second weekend, pulling in an estimated $24 million. That sharp decline guarantees the sci-fi adventure will lose its number one spot at the domestic box office.
Instead of holding the crown, Disney’s flagship franchise is being outmaneuvered by independent horror. A24’s highly anticipated adaptation of Backrooms, directed by internet sensation Kane Parsons, is eyeing a spectacular $70 million debut. The Star Wars feature will likely fall all the way to third place, trailing Curry Barker’s indie horror hit Obsession, which is projected to earn $25 million in its own sophomore frame.
This weekend’s projections rewrite the franchise record books in the wrong direction. If the 69 percent slide holds, it will be the steepest second-weekend percentage drop for any Star Wars film in history, breaking the previous record held by 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which fell 65 percent. This reality sets in following an opening frame that was already the lowest for a Star Wars film in the modern Disney era, according to AP News. The film opened to $81.96 million over the standard three-day Memorial Day weekend and $102 million for the extended four-day holiday.
While the theatrical prestige takes a visible hit, the financial stakes for Lucasfilm are completely different this time around. The studio produced the movie on a relatively lean $165 million budget, a fraction of the $300 million price tags attached to the sequel trilogy. It also continues to resonate heavily with its core demographic of young families, earning an A- CinemaScore and high PostTrak ratings from children under 13.
The weekend narrative really belongs to the horror genre. A24 is perfectly positioned to capitalize on a weakened blockbuster slate, with Backrooms currently pacing to secure the biggest opening weekend in the independent studio’s history. Between that debut and the historic staying power of Obsession, a detailed tracking report from World of Reel confirms Disney is facing unprecedented competition from low-budget counter-programming. Fans are still buying tickets to see Din Djarin and his apprentice on the big screen, but the pop culture conversation has abruptly shifted to Kane Parsons’ liminal spaces.