A global diesel reserve crisis and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have shifted the political balance in Hungary. A final poll shows the opposition Tisza Party is on track for a massive victory. This win could end 16 years of rule by Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The 21 Kutatóközpont poll shows the party at 55% among certain voters as the 2026 general election arrives.
Public anger over inflation and energy costs is high. According to the latest survey data from Telex, the Tisza Party has 52% support on the general list. The ruling Fidesz coalition has fallen to 38%. These numbers suggest the opposition could win 135 seats in the 199-seat parliament. That total is enough to cross the constitutional supermajority threshold.
The survey involved 1,500 people and happened between April 8 and April 11, 2026. This is the first time since 2010 that an opposition group has held a lead for a supermajority. Major outlets like the Demócrata and the AP are tracking the results as world leaders watch for a change in Budapest. Other parties like DK and MKKP are polling at just 1%.
The rise of Peter Magyar has changed the race. His party is now pulling voters from both the left and the right. Fidesz has lost its traditional image of stability. Voters say they want a new direction as the country faces economic pressure. The election results will determine if Hungary keeps its current path or starts a total reset.
How a Tisza Supermajority Could Reset Hungary’s Constitutional Framework
A supermajority would give the Tisza Party total control over the national law. They would not need to talk to other groups to change cardinal rules. Fidesz used this power to stay in control for 16 years. Now, the opposition has the same chance. This shift would allow a complete reset of the judicial system and electoral rules. It is a massive change in how the country works. For the first time in over a decade, the institutional scaffolding built by Orban is at risk of being dismantled on day one.