Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, stands by his bold prediction that Bitcoin will surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025, even as the cryptocurrency market faces ongoing pressure.
Hayes defended his position in a recent interview, reiterating his confidence despite skepticism and Bitcoin’s recent downturn. The controversial forecast comes with just weeks remaining in the year.
As of the article’s context, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $90,864, having recently recovered about 12% from a seven-month low of $80,600. That earlier drop had erased all of Bitcoin’s accumulated gains for 2025.
Hayes argues that the market has already reached its bottom, setting the stage for a significant rebound. He points to a confluence of macroeconomic factors and shifts within the crypto market as key catalysts.
One major factor, according to Hayes, is a turning point in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, signaling a potential reversal from months of financial tightening.
Prediction markets, like Polymarket, indicate an 87% probability of another FED rate cut before December 10. Analysts also anticipate that the central bank will conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) process as early as December 1.
This shift towards more accommodating financial conditions, Hayes believes, will inject new liquidity into global markets, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. He also notes that U.S. dollar liquidity has bottomed out and is now acting as a support for markets.
Furthermore, Hayes suggests that the unwinding of a specific financial strategy, known as the basis trade, is nearing completion. This strategy involved buying BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) to use as collateral while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME.
When funding rates decrease, institutions dismantle these operations by selling the ETF and repurchasing futures to lock in profits. Hayes asserts that this phase is largely over, which should reduce selling pressure on Bitcoin.
He also references a “leverage washout” event on October 10, which he believes acted as a reset for the industry. This event purged high-risk positions, strengthening the market structure for a potential upward movement.
“We are at the bottom now, but we can go higher,” Hayes concluded, outlining his immediate outlook for Bitcoin. He maintains his long-term investment strategy in BTC, expressing little concern even if his short-term prediction does not materialize.
Bitcoin’s current all-time high stands at $126,220, making Hayes’s $250,000 target a substantial leap within the remaining weeks of the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, have remained near historical highs, a divergence Hayes sees as reflecting underlying tensions that could favor Bitcoin’s recovery.