Apple is projected to surpass Samsung Electronics as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer in 2025, fueled by a massive consumer upgrade cycle and the success of its newest iPhone models.
Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will achieve a 19.4% global market share next year. This projection contrasts sharply with Samsung’s modest 4.6% growth prediction, while Apple expects a 10% surge in 2025.
Early indicators already show Apple’s momentum. The company’s sales jumped an impressive 37% year-over-year in October. This significantly outpaced the broader market’s 8% growth during the same period.
Analysts attribute much of this growth to consumers replacing devices bought during the 2020-2021 pandemic boom. This creates a “perfect storm” for upgrades and new purchases. This shift marks a crucial turning point in consumer behavior.
The “supercycle” of replacement is now in full swing, with many users feeling the need to update their equipment. This, combined with the strong reception for new models like the upcoming iPhone 17, has created an ideal moment for Apple to regain market leadership.
The second-hand market has also played a silent, but significant, role in Apple’s success. In the last two years, millions of users entered the Apple ecosystem through used iPhones. Many of these loyal customers are now ready to purchase their first new iPhone, further boosting sales.
Apple is expected to maintain its leadership position until at least 2029. This is a considerable achievement given the overall smartphone market growth is stagnating at only 3.3%.
The company plans to solidify its market standing with future releases. These include an anticipated foldable iPhone and a more accessible iPhone 17e.
Apple’s strategy for the next five years appears robust. The company anticipates record revenues this Christmas season, underscoring the strength of its market position.