Strategy faces potential capital outflows totaling billions of dollars as a leading global index provider considers removing the company from key stock market indices due to its substantial exposure to Bitcoin.
JPMorgan analysts warned that Strategy could lose up to $8.8 billion in passive investment flows if multiple index providers exclude it. The global index provider MSCI is evaluating whether to remove companies like Strategy whose primary business involves managing Bitcoin or other digital assets. A decision from MSCI is expected by January 15, 2026, a date analysts deem critical for Strategy’s market trajectory.
JPMorgan’s report, published Wednesday and led by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted the significant financial risk. Analysts noted that Strategy’s share price has fallen more than Bitcoin in recent months. This trend reflects a considerable drop in the company’s valuation premium.
This decline is influenced by growing concerns over a potential index exclusion. Strategy is currently included in major benchmarks, including the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World indices.
Approximately $9 billion of Strategy’s $50 billion market capitalization is held by passive funds that track these indices. This extensive exposure has enabled Bitcoin to enter both retail and institutional portfolios through passive investment vehicles.
If excluded, passive funds would be forced to sell their holdings in Strategy. JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in outflows if only MSCI indices remove the company. The total figure could rise to $8.8 billion if other index providers make similar decisions.
Analysts also warned that active fund managers, while not obligated to follow index changes, might view an exclusion as a negative signal. Such a move could impact Strategy’s future ability to secure financing through equity or debt issuance. An exclusion could also reduce liquidity and trading volumes for Strategy shares, making the asset less appealing to institutional investors.
The analysis indicated that Strategy’s total market value, relative to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings, has reached its lowest point since the pandemic. An adverse MSCI decision could push this ratio even closer to one, effectively valuing the company almost solely as a Bitcoin holding vehicle.
MSCI launched a consultation late last month, specifically targeting companies where Bitcoin or digital asset holdings constitute at least 50% of their total assets. The consultation period ends December 31. Results are scheduled to be announced on January 15, 2026.
Any approved changes would become effective during the February 2026 index review. The debate over including heavily Bitcoin-exposed companies in benchmark indices is intensifying, reflecting the growing intersection between digital assets and traditional financial markets. For Strategy, which has built its corporate strategy around Bitcoin, this review could fundamentally reshape its influence in global markets.