It seems Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is throwing a wrench into a widely held belief about Bitcoin. He argues that the famous four-year cycle for Bitcoin, a pattern many investors have used for predictions, is now out of date. Forget what you thought you knew; bigger forces are at play, according to his latest market analysis.
Hayes makes it plain: global monetary policies, not the halving events, are now the main engine driving Bitcoin’s price. He thinks the old four-year pattern “worked before, but it will fail this time.” For him, worldwide liquidity and major decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and China will set the market’s path. He laid out these views in a recent blog post, arguing that current macroeconomic trends have simply broken the old rules. You can find his full thoughts here.
For over a decade, Bitcoin’s ups and downs often mirrored its halving events. These events cut the creation of new Bitcoin in half, usually leading to price surges. But Hayes now believes this model is no longer useful. He suggests that what truly pushes Bitcoin’s price today are the actions of central banks and big credit expansions.
Old Cycles, New Drivers
Historically, Bitcoin’s cycles usually ended when tight money conditions cooled the economy. But today’s world looks very different. Hayes points to the massive liquidity policies from major global powers. These actions are completely changing how the crypto market behaves.
“The cycle no longer depends on halving or institutions joining in,” Hayes stated. He thinks the U.S. Treasury has been pouring huge amounts of cash into markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, even though inflation remains above its target. Add to that past efforts by Donald Trump’s administration to keep the economy moving with easier money policies.
Hayes also highlights a clear link between Bitcoin’s past price peaks and periods when more money flowed into the system. Think back to Bitcoin’s first big price jump in 2013. It happened alongside the Fed’s quantitative easing and a credit boom in China. The good times ended when both countries slowed down their money printing.
The Money Printing Machine
A similar story played out in 2015, fueled by a new surge of Chinese credit. Then again in 2020, more money from the U.S. helped power one of Bitcoin’s biggest price increases ever. In each case, the end of the cycle lined up with tighter money conditions.
This time, however, Hayes sees a different outcome. He wrote that “China is no longer deflationary, and the United States continues to operate its money machine.” Because of this, he expects the flood of money could keep Bitcoin’s price rising longer than many anticipate. He’s even suggested in past analyses that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the year is out.
The BitMEX co-founder believes the current economic climate breaks all past patterns. Money is flowing from both Western and Eastern economies. This dual stream is feeding financial markets, and by extension, Bitcoin.
“There will be more money, and it will be cheaper,” Hayes predicted. He believes Bitcoin will continue its climb as long as these conditions hold true. For him, the old four-year cycle is a relic of the past. It simply can’t predict an asset now so closely tied to the global economic pulse.
Not everyone fully agrees with Hayes’s outlook. The on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, for instance, has noted that Bitcoin’s price action still shows some resemblance to previous cycles. Hayes, however, dismisses this, saying the similarity is only temporary and will soon fade away.
Bitcoin’s Current Pulse
At the time of Hayes’s analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $121,129. This reflected a correction as some investors decided to take their profits. On the Binance exchange, open interest dropped by about 8% after hitting record highs. This suggests traders are becoming a bit more careful.
Hayes’s core idea is clear: While halvings will remain important symbolic moments for the Bitcoin community, the real cycle deciding Bitcoin’s fate is no longer about mined blocks. Instead, it’s all about the sheer volume of dollars printed by central banks.
🚨 Bitcoin’s four-year cycle collapses 🚨
Arthur Hayes of BitMEX states that monetary policies, not halvings, are now the engine of BTC’s price.
He assures that global liquidity and decisions by the FED and China set the market’s course.
Bitcoin trades… pic.twitter.com/1m9jH9aTEh
— Diario฿itcoin (@Blaze Trends)