The Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently the biggest threat to our planet, and for good reason – this approximately 55-meter chunk of space debris is already being referred to as a “city killer”. The US space agency NASA and the European space agency ESA have both weighed in on the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth, with NASA currently classifying the likelihood at 2.3 percent. That may not sound like a lot, but trust me, it’s a significant concern.
If the asteroid were to hit Earth, it could release energy equivalent to up to eight megatons. To put that into perspective, the atomic bomb “Little Boy”, which was dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945, had an explosive force of around 15 kilotons. So, we’re talking about a potentially massive impact here.
A Different Theory: Could the Asteroid Hit the Moon Instead?
But what if the asteroid doesn’t hit Earth at all? According to asteroid researcher David Rankin, a scientist from the University of Arizona, there’s a possibility that 2024 YR4 could actually hit the moon instead. Now, the likelihood of this happening is significantly lower, with Rankin calculating the probability at around 0.3 percent. Still, it’s an interesting theory, and one that’s worth exploring further. If the asteroid were to hit the moon, we might even be able to witness the collision from Earth.
However, as Rankin pointed out, even if the asteroid does hit the moon, it’s unlikely that any material ejected from the collision would pose a significant threat to our planet. “There is a possibility that some material will be thrown back that the earth could hit, but I strongly doubt that this would be a greater threat,” he said in an interview with News Scientist. Scientists currently assume that any material released from an asteroid impact on the moon would likely burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The Moon: A Giant Asteroid Magnet
The moon, with its surface covered in craters, is no stranger to asteroid strikes. In fact, if 2024 YR4 were to hit the moon, it could create a crater with a diameter of up to 1.2 kilometers, according to Space.com. The moon’s proximity to Earth and its relatively small size make it a giant asteroid magnet, with many space rocks and debris being drawn to its surface over the years.
The Asteroid’s Current Trajectory
So, where is the asteroid right now? Currently, 2024 YR4 is around 43 million kilometers away from Earth. But come December 2032, the asteroid is expected to come within 106,000 kilometers of our planet. To put that into perspective, the average distance from the Earth to the moon is around 384,400 kilometers. So, while the asteroid is still a long way off, its potential impact is very much on the radar of space agencies and scientists around the world.