Expert Ariel Ahram, professor of governance and international affairs at the Virginia Tech School of Public & International Affairs, analyzes the situation in Israel after the ceasefire agreed with Hamas for LA RAZÓN.
Could this ceasefire be the beginning of the end of the war? Does Hamas want to end the war or does it prefer to prolong the conflict to turn international public opinion against Israel?
Hamas is probably interested in finding a way to end the war quickly. It has achieved its main goal: the release of Palestinian prisoners. He wants to declare victory and leave the battlefield. But the decision is not only in the hands of Hamas. There are signs of escalation by Iranian proxy groups, particularly the Houthi group in Yemen, which has attacked ships in the Red Sea. This is a truly dangerous sign that the war could escalate into a regional conflict just as its local impact is coming to an end.
Will Israel continue to attack Gaza even if Hamas releases all the hostages?
Both the Israeli government and public opinion are deeply divided over how to proceed. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition was already unstable before the war. There are factions on the right that want to continue the war and even expand it and take the fight to Iran. Others blame Netanyahu for military shortcomings and do not trust his leadership. They will not want an open end to the conflict, both for strategic reasons and because it would prolong Netanyahu’s political life.
Do you think there are more Gazans against Hamas after the war or has hatred against Israel increased?
It’s possible that it is both. Israel is accused of having caused great damage. Normally, Hamas gains popularity when it starts fighting. But that popularity is waning as civilians suffer more and more damage and Hamas shows it is willing to take risks with other people’s lives.
Will there be a long-term negotiation and agreement between Palestinians and Israelis to end the conflict that began in 1948?
Whether this conflict brings us closer to a long-term agreement depends on the lessons each party learns from it. If Hamas concludes that it can launch another raid like the one on October 7 and be successful, it will continue to do so. If Israel believes that the Palestinians are a stubborn enemy and negotiations are not possible, serious discussion will never occur. On the other hand, if both sides decide that fighting is too risky and there is room for negotiation, then that could be a sign of a chance to move forward.