Indications of a bottom
Periods of panic are often a sign that a bottom is close. However, are there metrics that support this? One way to understand Bitcoin market trends is to examine market cycles. A market cycle refers to the natural fluctuations of prices that occur in a market over time. Figure 5 shows Bitcoin price developments along with times when the halving takes place. Historically, bull runs occur in cycles of about four years, always following a halving. After the bull cycle peak, there is a prolonged period of falling prices, the bear market, which lasts about a year.
We are now just over a year away from Bitcoin’s all-time high. This one was on November 10th with a price of over $69,000 (source: CoinGecko). The bottom of the previous bull market was on December 17, 2018, so 4 years ago. Will history repeat itself?