Things could get very exciting for bitcoin (BTC) this week. The crypto market is already starting to become volatile, and that is even faster than expected due to new developments. This volatility is expected to increase further later today.
For the time being, bitcoin is not affected by these developments and even recovered to the range just above $17,000 last night. Bitcoin tops out at $17,174 on Binance and $16,290 on Bitvavo at the time of writing.
This means that the bitcoin price is up 1.5% today. Trading volume increased by 7% in the last 24 hours. The total market capitalization is $330 billion and the dominance is 39.1%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 27 (Fear).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 27 ~ Fear
Current price: $17,162 pic.twitter.com/HgPuyRrODr— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) December 12, 2022
FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried arrested
The time has finally come: Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, was arrested yesterday in the Bahamas and is likely to be extradited to the United States.
However, that means the much-anticipated hearing with SBF and the Senate Banking Committee later today is unlikely to take place. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also announces that it will sue SBF. More on this later on Crypto Insiders.
Gurbir Grewal: We commend our law enforcement partners for securing the arrest of Sam Bankman-Fried on federal criminal charges. The SEC has authorized separate charges relating to his violations of securities laws, to be filed publicly tomorrow in SDNY. https://t.co/ON0LgY4mf4
— U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (@SECGov) December 13, 2022
Binance problems lead to outflow
Meanwhile, problems are brewing at Binance that are already causing some volatility in the market. Rumors of a criminal investigation and criticism of the published proof-of-reserves cause a lot fear, uncertainty & doubt (FUD). This in turn leads to a large outflow of tokens from Binance, although BTC liquidity still seems to be holding up.
There’s a spike in withdrawals from Binance in the last 24H with -$1.6B* netflow
Its 7-day netflow is now at -$1.9B, currently this is less than the -$2.3B weekly netflow Binance has processed in the wake of FTX collapse
*ETH & ERC20 tokens only pic.twitter.com/pwbeQXtDxK
— Nansen 🧭 (@nansen_ai) December 13, 2022
US CPI today
The American consumer price index (CPI) will be published again at 2:30 this afternoon. US annual inflation is expected to reach 7.3%, down from 7.7% last month.
There is a chance that the market will remain hesitant and will only respond to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will follow tomorrow. Unless the inflation figures deviate strongly from expectations. Then there is a good chance that the prices will react immediately.
US CPI day tomorrow! Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast expects 7.5% YoY, Bloomberg consensus 7.2%.
Last month’s CPI release was the first downside surprise after 9 consecutive upside surprises vs the Cleveland Fed estimate. pic.twitter.com/kk73fp9yi5
— Patrick Saner (@patrick_saner) December 12, 2022
Bitcoin price: further recovery, then new low?
Should bitcoin hold up here and macroeconomic developments turn out positive, it is possible that bitcoin will briefly surge to the area above $18,000, analyst Crypto Tony as well as the analysts at Crypto Insiders report.
Another perspective on #Bitcoin here is if we add on the volume profile. We can see we are hovering around the POC, but if we can close above $17,300, we could wick up into the untested supply zone around $18,200 – $18,500
The EQ is the where we must hold pic.twitter.com/Z3nFF28mpc
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) December 13, 2022
Despite this, much of the market still fears that the bottom for bitcoin has yet to follow and that could be as low as $11,000 to $14,000 early next year, according to Toni Ghinea.
$BTC / $USD Bottom is 11-14k. Capitulation is in Q1 2023. Ignore the noise. pic.twitter.com/2JMZLZKGQs
— Toni Ghinea (@ToniGhinea) December 12, 2022
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