Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating just above $17,000 for the past few days, but lost traction again last night. It may be a sign of the exciting week ahead.
With less than an hour and a half to go, #Bitcoin is literally trading at the line separating the weekly close from Red/Green.#CPI Report Tuesday, #FED rate hikes and #JPow speaks on Wednesday. Stay tuned for volatility. pic.twitter.com/5KzDYYvd1T
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) December 11, 2022
Despite this, bitcoin is holding above $16,900 for now and is still stuck in the same tight range, but that may finally change this week. At the time of writing, the BTC price stands at $16,925 on Binance and $16,050 on Bitvavo.
This puts the bitcoin price down 1.5% today. The trading volume increased by 35% in the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization is $326 billion and the dominance is 38.8%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 27 (Fear).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 27. Fear
Current price: $17,106 pic.twitter.com/WS6sr7LC68— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) December 12, 2022
Exciting week for bitcoin: CPI, FOMC, SBF, and more
The crypto market expects a return of volatility this week due to several major developments.
First, tomorrow we have a US Senate Banking Committee hearing with former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. SBF indicated on Friday that he is “willing to testify.”
1) I still do not have access to much of my data — professional or personal. So there is a limit to what I will be able to say, and I won’t be as helpful as I’d like.
But as the committee still thinks it would be useful, I am willing to testify on the 13th. https://t.co/KR34BsNaG1
— SBF (@SBF_FTX) December 9, 2022
The US consumer price index (CPI) will be published on the same day. If US inflation data again deviates sharply from what is expected, this could again provoke a strong reaction in the markets.
The consensus estimate for Tuesday’s inflation report is 7.3% (overall US CPI YoY in November), down from 7.7% in October and the 40-year high of 9.1% back in June.
The actual number will be…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 12, 2022
So is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Next Wednesday we will be told how high the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, plans to raise interest rates. This can also provoke a violent reaction if this increase turns out to be higher (or lower) than expected. An increase of 0.5% is currently expected.
1/ Weeks don’t get much bigger than this!
Tuesday: US CPI – core expected to increase +0.3% m/m
—> >+0.3% for bearish impulse
—> <+0.3% for bullish impulseWednesday: FOMC – market’s priced in with 78% probability that the Fed slow the pace of hikes to 50bps at this meeting. pic.twitter.com/tAAuW5rP5D
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) December 11, 2022
However, it does not stop there. Shortly after FOMC, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gives his speech and may offer more insight into the central bank’s policy over the coming months.
The interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), the central bank of the United Kingdom, will follow a day later.
Now more bitcoin has been dormant for 10+ years than is on exchanges
The recent FTX crash means that more BTC has not moved in more than 10 years than is on all crypto exchanges in total, analyst TXMC reports. It is a sign of declining confidence in these exchanges, but also of increasing confidence in bitcoin itself. However, a large portion of this 10+ year old BTC is lost forever.
Updating a previous item:
There are now more coins 🔴idle for a decade than the sum total of #BTC on 🔵exchanges (per @glassnode calcium).
The FTX event puts the final nail in this inevitable transition. pic.twitter.com/8i0o1mSh3G
— 𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 (@TXMCtrades) December 12, 2022
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