3 reasons why Bitcoin will rise in 2024 even without an ETF

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market will reach higher prices in 2024, expects analyst Markus Thielen of Matrixport, a crypto service provider.

He expects this as well as the applications for the long-awaited spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) or exchange funds are not approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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Higher BTC price due to liquidity and Bitcoin halving

Thielen points out several factors that influence the crypto market. On the one hand, there is the increase in liquidity on the financial markets and this seems to have a high correlation with the Bitcoin price.

Since the COVID pandemic, the amount of money in U.S. money market funds has increased from $3 trillion to $6.1 trillion. This increase results in approximately $370 billion in annual interest payments, which is equivalent to about $1 billion per day.

According to Thielen, this money can easily move into riskier markets, including crypto.

Thielen cites the upcoming Bitcoin halving as the second reason. The next halving is expected to take place in April next year.

From then on, the reward for Bitcoin miners is halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, the Bitcoin halving occurs just before the start of a new bull market.


Higher BTC price due to President Trump’s re-election

Then, according to Thielen, there is a third important factor that we don’t often hear about. Next year is an election year in the US and Thielen sees a “high probability” that former President Donald Trump will be re-elected.

According to the analyst, Trump’s policies could boost the US economy and thus prices in the crypto market.

Not everyone will agree with this. During his presidency, Trump regularly spoke out strongly against Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, he recently released his own NFT collection for the third time.

Even under Trump, Gary Gensler is expected to remain chairman of the SEC until the end of his term in summer 2026.

Although higher prices in 2024 currently seem realistic, a crash early next year wouldn’t be a big surprise if ETF applications are rejected.

Prices have likely risen over the past six months due to hype surrounding an upcoming Bitcoin ETF. The final deadline for the first Bitcoin ETF application is January 10th.

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