It’s been almost two years now Ripple (XRP) intertwined in a lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Ripple is accused by the US regulator of selling XRP tokens as securitiesor securities, without holding the necessary licenses.
The lawsuit became a war of attrition, but slowly it seems that we approaching an end. Ripple lawyer Jeremy Hogan recently shared on YouTube the main scenarios people should be aware of.
Ripple loses
First of all, that is a defeat for the Ripple camp. although Hogan thinks While this is not the most likely scenario, it remains absolutely possible that Ripple will go home empty-handed.
“The only thing the SEC did right is collect all the statements, emails and YouTube videos from various Ripple employees talking about the price of XRP. I mean, they had eight years of work. Judge Torres could look at all those statements and agree with the SEC.”
Hogan estimates that Ripple has a 30% chance of losing the lawsuit.
A draw
It could also be that no clear victory is awarded by Judge Torres, according to Hogan. This can take place if the judge finds neither party convincing enough. According to Hogan, the chance of this happening is 18%.
“Judge Torres rules that early XRP sales were securities, but at some point the sales lose that designation and become a non-securities sale,” he added.
Ripple wins the lawsuit
However, Hogan assumes that Ripple wins and that the judge confirms that Ripple’s sale of XRP tokens did not break any rules and that the token is not security is. This is the scenario that XRP investors are hoping for and according to Jeremy Hogan, the probability of Ripple winning is about 50%.
“The first reason I think Ripple will win is because it had no legal obligation to buyers of XRP after the sale took place. No obligations after the sale. In other words, there can be no investment contract without investment.”