2023 will be the warmest year on record

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service assessment, which takes into account changes in surface air temperature, sea ice cover and hydrological variables at a global scale, 2023 will be the warmest year. What stands out from the measurements is that the extent of Antarctica’s frozen surface was the second lowest in a month in November.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) predicts that 2023 is likely to be the warmest year on record. This calculation is based on records compiled by this center throughout the year, carried out by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission, and covering data for the month of November.

In its monthly climate bulletin, Copernicus reports changes in surface air temperature, sea ice cover and hydrological variables on a global scale. All results are based on computer analysis and the ERA5 data set, which uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

Therefore, among the main indicators of surface air temperature in November 2023, it can be seen that it was the warmest November since the world record, with average surface air temperatures 14.22 °C (0.85 °F) above the 1991-2020 average in this month).

Additionally, last month was 1.75°C warmer than the estimated average for November from 1850 to 1900, the pre-industrial reference period. At the same time, the global temperature anomaly in November 2023 is the same as in October 2023.

The average sea surface temperature last month (60°S to 60°N) was the highest on record in November and 0.25°C warmer than the second warmest November in 2015.

A record autumn

This year (January to November), the global average temperature in 2023 is the highest on record: 1.46 °C above the pre-industrial average and above zero.13 °C compared to the 11-month period of 2016. the warmest year ever recorded.

The northern autumn of 2023 turned out to be the warmest season ever recorded in the world, with an average temperature of 15.30 °C (0.88 °C above average). However, the average temperature in Europe from September to November is 10.96 °C, which is 1.43 °C above average. This makes autumn 2023 the second warmest on record, just 0.03 °C colder than autumn 2020.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), noted that in six months of 2023 “Records were broken in two of the stations, too“. The extraordinary global temperatures in November, “There were two days with temperatures 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, making 2023 the warmest year on record“he added.

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For his part, the director of C3S, Carlo Buontempo, pointed out that “As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, we cannot expect any different results than this year as temperatures will continue to rise.“. It will also increasethe effects of heat waves and droughts“.
According to Buontempo: “An effective way to manage climate risks is to achieve carbon neutrality as quickly as possible“.

temperatures
Global monthly surface air temperature (°C) anomalies for the period 1991–2020, presented as a time series for each year from January 1940 to November 2023. Thick shaded lines in light red and dark red correspond to the years 2023 and 2016, respectively. The remaining years are each represented by decade with thin, shaded lines ranging from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). Data source: ERA5. / Copernicus Climate Change Service, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMPM)

Thaw, excessive rain or drought

The report finds that Arctic sea ice extent was among the most significant changes to the ice sheet in November 2023, reaching its eighth lowest value in November, 4% below average. Sea ice extent in Antarctica reached its second lowest level in November, 9% below average, after hitting record lows for this time of year for six consecutive months.

Looking at hydrological variables for the final month of 2023, scientists found that much of Europe recorded above-average rainfall in November and that Storm Ciarán struck many regions, including Italy, causing heavy rains and flooding. At the same time, drier conditions were observed in parts of the United States, Central and East Asia, and much of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with particular emphasis in South America.

Situation in the rivers in the warmest year

Regarding hydrological variables, the bulletin points out that above-average rainfall was recorded in autumn 2023 across much of Europe, as well as the United Kingdom and Ireland, large parts of Scandinavia and Turkey.
During the season, several storms caused widespread rainfall and localized flooding.

However, conditions over the same period were dryer than average across much of North America, Central Asia and the Far East, as well as much of Australia, South America and South Africa. Extratropical areas with above-average rainfall include the northwestern Caspian Sea and parts of Russia, the Far East of China, southern Brazil, Chile and the Horn of Africa.

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